HOLLYWOOD - Saving a crew of Russian submariners from a watery grave should prove an easier task for Harrison Ford than winning this weekend's box office derby against a spunky mouse with human-like qualities.K-19: The Widowmaker represents Ford's first action thriller since 1997's Air Force One, but that by no means guarantees a bigger opening than Stuart Little 2. The sequel to 1999's surprise smash hit scurried into 3,255 theaters, runs a mere 77 minutes and enjoys huge awareness among young audiences who have already turned Scooby-Doo and Lilo & Stitch into summer blockbusters. Based on a true Cold War-era incident, K-19 will crash-dive into 2,824 theaters, but runs 138 minutes and faces stiff competition from Tom Hanks' Road to Perdition for adults looking for an intelligent summer offering.
Essentially a Cold War remake of Run Silent, Run Deep, K-19 recounts how Russian bureaucracy and inefficiency led to the 1961 disabling of a Soviet submarine and a possible nuclear meltdown. Ford, serving as the submarine's captain, spends as much of his time trying to save his men as he does clashing with second-in-command Liam Neeson. Director Kathryn Bigelow tells K-19 solely from a Russian perspective, which could provoke apathy from some teens uninterested in Cold War politics.
Oddly, Ford serves as both K-19's primary asset and liability. Ford's decision to adopt a Russian accent as the commander of a disabled Soviet nuclear submarine might distract audiences from the task at hand. It does seem unnecessary for Ford to try his hand at such an accent considering the Russians have no verbal interactions with their U.S. counterparts.
Yet audiences always turn out en masse to see Ford save the day. The 1990s saw Ford score with The Fugitive ($183.8 million), Air Force One ($172.6 million) and Clear and Present Danger ($122 million). Plus, this is an opportunity to see Han Solo butt heads with Qui-Gon Jinn.
Also, audiences seem to enjoy spending time trapped within the confines of a jeopardized submarine. The Hunt for Red October ($17.1 million opening; $120.7 million total), Crimson Tide ($18.6 million opening; $91.3 million total) and U-571 ($19.5 million opening; $77 million total) all weathered rough seas to become successful by varying degrees.
Given Ford's stature, K-19 should open around The Fugitive's $23.7 million. (In a twist of irony, K-19 won't muster enough energy to exceed The Sum of All Fears's $31.1 opening and $115 million total through Sunday. Ford declined to star in the fourth Jack Ryan yarn, allowing Ben Affleck to revitalize the franchise.)
K-19's future then depends upon whether it can withstand strong competition from Road to Perdition. If so, K-19 could dock somewhere between the totals of Crimson Tide and U-571.
Road to Perdition widens by several hundred theaters this weekend after a superb $22.1 million at a modest 1,797 theaters. That could put some older adults in a bind as they found themselves choosing between Road to Perdition and K-19.
DreamWorks deliberately kept the theater count low in order to prevent the 1930s-era gangster saga from rapidly burning out, a strategy that's worked thus far. Road to Perdition opened better than Hanks' The Green Mile ($18 million) and close to Apollo 13 ($25.3 million) and Forrest Gump ($24.4 million).
With $31.8 million through Thursday, Road to Perdition could hit $50 million by this weekend. The presumed Oscar contender is on track to break $100 million long before Labor Day. This would give Sam Mendes his second consecutive $100 million smash, following his Oscar-winning American Beauty ($130 million).